Measurement case studies

Readable worked examples of how advertising measurement can go wrong: the business model, the tempting metric, the hidden bias, and the better test design.

Turn examples into better questions

Use the library to identify a likely failure mode, then pressure-test the claim and choose the measurement design that would answer the real business question.

Claim confidence rubricDecide how strong the public or advertiser-facing claim should be.
Measurement method selectorMatch the claim to a holdout, matched-market, MMM, survey, or diagnostic approach.
Incrementality test plan templateConvert the lesson into a cleaner test plan before the next readout.

Brand lift measurement

The Brand Lift Study That Mistook Survey Recruitment For Persuasion

The exposed survey respondents are recruited from higher-attention placements and more category-involved sessions, while the control respondents come from broader lower-intent inventory, so respondent mix is mistaken for campaign-caused persuasion.

Naive: 20.5 pts Adjusted: 0.9 pts

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Card-linked offers

The Card-Linked Offer That Targeted The People Already Ready To Spend

Targeting uses recent category behavior and purchase histories. The measured treatment group therefore contains shoppers with a higher baseline chance of buying even without the offer.

Naive: 14.8 pts Adjusted: 1.6 pts

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Cash-back retail media

The Cash-Back Claim Test That Rewarded Pre-Existing Purchase Intent

The test group had to claim an offer before buying, while the control group did not complete an equivalent intent-revealing step. Claiming the offer is partly a measure of pre-existing purchase intent.

Naive: 26.0 pts Adjusted: 2.0 pts

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Geo lift testing

The Geo Lift Test That Mistook Seasonal Markets For Media Lift

The treated markets already had stronger category momentum, higher baseline demand, and more favorable timing before the campaign, so the readout treats market selection and seasonality as incremental media impact.

Naive: 20.0 pts Adjusted: 1.2 pts

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Lead generation measurement

The Lead-Gen Campaign That Counted Form Fillers As New Demand

The measured group is enriched for visitors who already had stronger buying intent before the campaign, so form fills and matched pipeline are treated as incremental demand.

Naive: 24.1 pts Adjusted: 1.2 pts

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Receipt rewards and shopper marketing

The Receipt Rewards Offer That Mistook Brand Affinity For Lift

Users who clip, activate, or submit qualifying receipts are already more engaged with the category and more likely to buy the brand. The action required for treatment reveals intent that the control group never had to reveal.

Naive: 15.8 pts Adjusted: 1.1 pts

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Retargeting measurement

The Retargeting Campaign That Counted Cart Returners As New Demand

The treatment group is enriched for people who recently browsed, compared, saved, or abandoned a cart, so the campaign is credited for conversions that many users were already likely to complete.

Naive: 29.6 pts Adjusted: 0.9 pts

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Search advertising

The Search Campaign That Confused Intent Capture With Incrementality

The treatment group is enriched for shoppers who typed commercial or branded queries, so last-click conversion credit captures demand that already existed before the ad impression.

Naive: 28.5 pts Adjusted: 0.6 pts

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